Yemen
On January 2, 2026, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) of Yemen declared the initiation of a two-year process to establish an independent state in southern Yemen, harking back to the pre-1990 People's Democratic Republic of Yemen with Aden as its capital. Backed by the UAE, the STC has increasingly distanced itself from Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels.
The announcement followed the STC's seizure of Hadramout and Mahra provinces in December 2025, escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia. In response, the Yemeni government launched a military offensive, supported by Saudi airstrikes, to reclaim the provinces. The STC warned it would declare independence if a proposed dialogue, now supported by a Saudi invitation to talks in Riyadh, fails.
The conflict also strained UAE-Saudi ties, with Saudi forces bombing Emirati weapon shipments and Abu Dhabi responding by pulling its forces from Yemen. The STC has refused to withdraw from captured areas despite Saudi demands, and airstrikes have killed at least 20 separatist fighters. The unfolding crisis risks reigniting broader conflict in a region already destabilized by years of war and humanitarian disaster.
The STC's declaration marks a significant escalation in Yemen's ongoing conflict, with potential implications for regional stability and the humanitarian situation.
