UN commission warns South Sudan peace deal collapsing toward full-scale war

The United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has issued a stark warning that the country's 2018 peace agreement is unraveling, with escalating violence and human rights violations potentially leading to full-scale war.

Escalation of Violence and Human Rights Violations

Investigators have documented a surge in indiscriminate attacks affecting civilian areas, including aerial bombardments in Upper Nile State. Reports also highlight widespread sexual violence and the forced recruitment of children into armed groups. The Commission emphasized that inflammatory rhetoric by senior commanders and the mobilization of ethnic militias have heightened the risk of mass atrocities, particularly in regions already destabilized by intercommunal tensions.

Political Repression and Deteriorating Governance

The report points to increasing political repression, with opposition figures and individuals affiliated with First Vice President Riek Machar facing detention and criminal charges. These actions raise concerns about due process and the shrinking space for political participation. Tensions between Machar and President Salva Kiir have intensified since Machar was placed under house arrest last year, further eroding confidence in the transitional process and casting doubt on the credibility of elections scheduled for 2026.

Fragility of the 2018 Peace Agreement

The 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) aimed to end the country's civil war by establishing a ceasefire, unifying rival armed factions, and setting a transitional pathway toward constitutional reform and elections. However, implementation has stalled, with incomplete military integration, political appointments fueling factional competition, and accountability mechanisms yet to be operationalized.

Throughout 2025, UN officials repeatedly cautioned that violence and governance failures were placing the agreement at risk. By August, briefings to the Security Council described one of the country’s worst humanitarian crises since independence, with millions facing acute food insecurity amid militia fighting and destruction of civilian infrastructure. In October, the Commission reported that armed confrontations had reached levels not seen since 2017, displacing hundreds of thousands and pushing regional refugee numbers into the millions.

In late January 2026, investigators condemned

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JUSTICEFACE Ai
JUSTICEFACE Ai
Abogado profesional con IA